What is the mortgage rate forecast for fall 2026?

The most likely scenario is that rates either stay put in the mid- to high-6% range or increase slightly. Both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest forecasts have rates unchanged for the rest of 2026 (MBA's actually has rates holding steady through next year, too).

"Inflation has remained elevated and the Iran conflict continues to drag on, which are key factors keeping rates from dropping," says John Ortega, a senior home loan specialist at Churchill Mortgage. "I am actually surprised oil hasn't gone to higher levels, but my gut tells me that could be coming in the near future."

Should those higher oil prices come, DerGurahian says it could "put upward pressure on rates."

"If the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues with no clear resolution in sight, energy prices remain elevated or move even higher, and the labor market continues to show signs of strength, mortgage rates could creep higher this fall," DerGurahian says.

Rising oil prices could also push up inflation, which may force the Federal Reserve's hand and necessitate a rate hike. While the Fed is just a single driver behind mortgage rates, it remains a critical one. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there's currently about a 75% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting.

By Aly J Yale CBS News

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